Monday, October 6, 2014

NW7US SWL and Ham Propagation Predictions for October

HF Propagation for October

By Tomas Hood, NW7US

A change in propagation conditions in the Northern Hemisphere can be observed as we move away from the long sunlit days of summer into the longer hours of winter’s darkness.  With the shorter period of sunlight each day, the ionosphere has more time during the dark hours to lose the energy created during daylight hours.  This affects the propagation of radio signals by lowering the Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) over many areas of the Earth.  However, the change in the length of daily darkness is not the only influence on the propagation of radio waves through the atmosphere.  The amount and strength of radiation arriving and passing through our atmosphere varies from season to season, as well as from the solar cycle minimum to the solar cycle maximum.

During the Northern Hemisphere’s winter months, the Earth is closer to the sun than during any other time of its orbit.  This makes the daytime ionization more intense than that of summer daytimes.  In turn, this higher-level energy during the day causes the average MUF to increase slightly as compared to the same time of day during the summer season, over the same radio signal path.

Then, with the longer winter hours of darkness, the ionosphere has more time to lose its electrical charge.  This causes the MUF to dip lower at night than during the summer months.

These conditions cause a wide daily variation in the maximum frequency that can be propagated by refraction of the radio waves by the wintertime ionosphere.  Many radio enthusiasts celebrate the arrival of the winter shortwave season for these reasons.

Signals below 120 meters are improving, with nighttime paths growing larger in the Northern Hemisphere.  Seasonal static, which makes it difficult to hear weak DX signals, is starting to decrease as we move into winter.  Expect a few DX openings during the hours of darkness and into the sunrise period.  These openings will often be weak due to the relatively high signal absorption during the expected elevated geomagnetic storminess through the rest of this year.  Look for openings from Europe and the south if you are listening in the eastern half of the United States, and from the south, the Far East, Australasia, and the South Pacific if you are in the western half of the country.  The best propagation aid is a set of sunrise and sunset curves, since DX signals tend to peak when it is local sunrise at the easterly end of the path in question.  A good Internet web site featuring a grey line map display is found at < >.  Follow the link, "map of the Earth" showing the day and night regions.

Seventy-five through 120 meters are coming alive in late October.  Expect long-range DX on the low bands, starting close in right after sunset, and extending farther as the night develops.  Signals here should peak from Europe and from a generally easterly direction around midnight.  DX paths will move farther west through the night.  By morning, openings from Asia should be common.  For openings in a generally western direction, expect a peak just after sunrise.  The band should remain open from the south throughout most of the night.  Propagation in this band is quite similar to that expected on 41 meters, except that signals will be somewhat weaker on the average, noise levels will be a bit higher, and the period for band openings in a particular direction will be a bit shorter.

Forty-one meters should be the hottest DX band during the dark hours as the seasonal static levels are lower than they were during the summer.  The band should be open first for European DX in the eastern United States during the late afternoon.  Signals should increase in intensity as darkness approaches.  During the hours of darkness, expect good DX openings from most areas of the world.  Signals should peak from an easterly direction about midnight, and from a westerly direction just after sunrise.  Excellent openings toward the south should be possible throughout most of the nighttime period.

Paths on 31 through 19 meters are becoming ever more reliable between North America and Europe in the morning and between North America and Asia during the late afternoon hours.  The strongest openings occur for a few hours after sunrise and during the sunset hours.

Thirty-one and 25 meters will often remain open into many areas late into the night and will open early in the morning, especially when part of the propagation path moves through sunlit regions.  However, these bands are crowded and signals are usually very strong and steady.  Twenty-five meters is expected to be an excellent band for medium distance (500 to 1500 miles) reception during the daylight hours.  Longer distance reception (up to 2000 to 3000 miles) should be possible for an hour or two after local sunrise, and again during the late afternoon and early evening.  Thirty-one meters will provide medium distance daytime reception ranging between 400 and 1200 miles.

Twenty-two through 19 meters compete with 16 for the best daytime DX band during October.  They will open for DX just before sunrise and should remain open from all directions throughout the day, with a peak in the afternoon.  Nighttime conditions will favor openings from the south and tropical areas.  Since the Southern Hemisphere has long daylight hours, DX paths on these bands from stations in the south will be common.

Sixteen through 13 meters will occasionally open through October when flux levels reach above 100.  Paths from Europe and the South Pacific as well as from Asia, at least during days of higher solar flux levels, are common, especially on 16 meters.  Look for best conditions from Europe and the northeast before noon and from the rest of the world during the afternoon hours.  Reception from the South Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, and the Far East should be possible well into the early evening.

VHF Conditions

Conditions during October should include moderate levels of trans-equatorial propagation (TE) in which stations in the southern states and parts of the Caribbean will be able to work into the northern areas of South America during the late afternoon.  During peak years of a solar cycle, October is one of the best months for TE activity, especially later in the month.  Since we are in a rather moderate solar cycle (that’s a liberal perspective), Sunspot Cycle 24, these openings may not occur often, but it is possible an exciting opening might occur from time to time; look for them by getting on the air and trying.

While sporadic-E activity is sparse during October in the northern Temperate Zone (where much of the U.S. is located), there is some possibility of extended tropospheric propagation conditions during October because of the changing weather patterns.  Higher VHF is the best frequency range to watch for this.

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